by Meir Javedanfar
Iran is usually the first to condemn Israel. Could its silence over the flotilla attack signal a sea change in Islamic politics?
The takeover of the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmaris by Israeli commandos led to demonstrations in numerous places around the world. People in Baku, Istanbul, and as far away as Edmonton, Canada, marched on the streets to voice their opposition to Israel's actions. However, in Tehran and in other big cities in Iran, the streets have been eerily quiet.
This is unusual for the Iranian government. Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, sees himself and the Islamic Republic as the defender of Muslim rights around the world. During every major confrontation in West Bank or Gaza, he has been the first to arrange demonstrations. This was seen during the Gaza war of 2009. Demonstrations were also arranged as soon as the Muhammad cartoon affair caused rage in the Muslim world. Even the killing of a pregnant Egyptian woman in Germany by a racist individual led to government-arranged demonstrations against Germany in Iran.
So far, four days since the crisis started, we have not seen any major demonstration in Iran. Although some statements may be made during the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death on Friday, the focus on that day will be on his legacy.
So what has happened?
Khamenei is fearful. Not of Israel, but from his own population. His regime is isolated within Iran and has lost so much credibility that he is worried that such demonstrations could turn into anti-government gatherings. And he would be right.
Last year's Qods Day turned into an opposition event. The same could happen this year if he arranges demonstrations against the flotilla incident, especially since we are close to the anniversary of the 2009 Iranian presidential elections. The very fact that opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi issued his own statement against Israel calling it a "violator of human dignity" makes Khamenei's concerns more valid.
This is a clear sign that one year on from the elections, we are no longer looking at the same Iran. The cracks in the foundations of the regime have still not been repaired.
There is another factor that should concern Khamenei. Israel's taking over of the Turkish ship was useful for Khamenei's government; it gave a boost to Iran and its hardline position in the region. However, the points that Iran has gained pale into insignificance when they are compared to the effect on Turkey. The flotilla incident and Turkey's role have catapulted its status in the Muslim world as the defender of Muslim rights. This most probably includes members of Hamas, whom Iran has been spending millions on in an effort to buy their support and loyalty.
Which other Muslim country has enough credibility, power and self-confidence to do what Turkey did? It promised to dispatch the flotilla and it went through with its promise.
The icing on the cake came when prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a very clear ultimatum to the Israeli government: free every single Turkish citizen, including those who assaulted your soldiers, otherwise our relations will suffer. Within three hours, Binyamin Netanyahu had accepted. Had this been an Arab country, including those that Israel has relations with, such as Jordan and Egypt, the Israelis would probably have stuck to their guns. The same for Iran.
But not Turkey. There is a new player in town and Israel takes it very seriously. Unlike Iran, Turkey has a powerful economy. Its GDP is the 18th largest in the world – one place above Iran. This is a major achievement for a country which is not a gas and oil exporter. It sits on the border of Europe and its relations with the EU and the US are astronomically better than those of its Iranian neighbour. Its power is expanding in the Caucasus, and relations are improving with its old foe and rival, Greece.
It's the same in the Middle East, where Turkey, unlike Iran, enjoys good relations with Sunni-ruled countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, as well as among Iran's friends Iraq and Syria. If current trends continue, Turkey could do what the Islamic Republic of Iran has been trying to do for the last 32 years: become the most powerful and credible political and military force in the Islamic world.
Meir Javedanfar
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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