by Prof. Eyal Zisser
-- the Syrian regime is bleeding. Its forces are stretched too thin and are being worn down across hundreds of flashpoints throughout the country. The regime is struggling to recruit the manpower it needs to use as "cannon fodder" on the killing fields.
In Damascus and Beirut
last week, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah proclaimed the launch of the "Qalamoun Mountains campaign,"
aimed at restoring control of the strategic range on the Syrian-Lebanese
border. The two leaders admitted to a recent string of defeats, but
took solace in the fact that in any war of existence, such as the one
they are currently waging, there are ups and downs.
Reports from the
Qalamoun region itself, however, reveal that in the meantime Hezbollah
fighters and the Syrian soldiers are sustaining considerable losses on
the battlefield. There have also been reports of widespread panic among
the Syrian leadership and preparations to abandon the capital.
Despite these reports,
however, the civil war raging in Syria is still far from ending. The
last few months have not been kind to the Syrian president, but that is
the nature of this war -- a bitter and bloody struggle for survival in
which a wave of victories is often followed by a colliding wave of
defeats, such that the difference on the ground remains negligible.
In the early days of
the Syrian civil war, it appeared Assad's fall was imminent. We recall
in this context comments made by then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who
predicted that Assad's days in power were numbered. But then Assad
recovered, thanks in no small part to help from Hezbollah, dispatched at
the behest of the Iranians to help him. It seemed then that Assad would
survive after all. Now the tide has again turned.
Three interrelated developments have led to the belief that Assad's fall is forthcoming:
Firstly, the rebel camp
has unified its ranks, with several prominent rebel groups emerging
from within, most of them with radical Islamist orientations. The most
important of these groups is Islamic State, located in eastern Syria,
and the Nusra Front, positioned along Syria's northern and southern
borders. These groups have managed to provide an alternative, although
unfavorable to Western eyes, to the Assad regime and act as a
counterweight to his army and supporters.
Secondly, the Syrian
regime is bleeding. Its forces are stretched too thin and are being worn
down across hundreds of flashpoints throughout the country. The regime
is struggling to recruit the manpower it needs to use as "cannon fodder"
on the killing fields. While Assad enjoys support from different
sectors of the Syrian public -- for example from the upper classes in
the large cities -- they too are of the Sunni persuasion. Only Assad's
Alawite tribesmen are willing to fight and sacrifice their lives for
him. The Alawites comprise barely 10 percent of the Syrian population
and cannot provide a counterbalance, at least not numbers-wise, to their
Sunni rivals who represent the overwhelming majority of the Syrian
populace. Meanwhile, the deployment of a few thousand well-trained and
motivated Hezbollah fighters is still not enough to truly change the
reality on the ground in Syria.
Thirdly, in the past
year the rebels have strung together a series of battlefield successes,
which together pose the beginning of a real threat to the Assad regime
in Damascus. Last summer they conquered most of the Syrian Golan
Heights, and this sector will likely be used as a jumping board from
which to threaten the capital. Several weeks ago, the rebels were able
to take Idlib and Jisr al-Shughour, two key cities in northwestern Syria
that provide territorial continuity for the rebels all the way to the
Turkish border. This also allows them to threaten the Syrian coastal
region, where Assad's loyal Alawite tribe is situated.
The momentum in Syria
is now in the hands of the rebels, who are swarming over the country
like an unstoppable locust cloud. Assad, meanwhile, has too few hands
and too short a reach to stunt their advance.
He needs a miracle to survive in
the long run, and devoid of such a miracle -- for example if the Turks
and Saudis suddenly stop supporting the rebels or if the Obama
administration decides to step in and save him -- his situation will
only continue to deteriorate. Regardless, we are still talking about a
lengthy process, full of ups and downs, that could take many long months
or even years. Syria's citizens, meanwhile, will continue to pay the
price.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12523
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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