by Yoav Limor
-- each terrorist learned of his predecessor's actions and sought to emulate them -- the goal is now to break the chain.
The security incidents
that occurred over the weekend in the West Bank and the north have
nothing to do with the one another, aside from occurring on the same
day. While the chances of an escalation in the north are slim, Judea and
Samaria will be the focus of a special effort to prevent a renewed wave
of terror on the eve of the holiday season.
In recent months, the
IDF and Shin Bet security agency have been able to stunt the Palestinian
terror wave through a variety of measures (offensive, defensive,
intelligence gathering and dissemination, together with increased action
from the Palestinian Authority's security apparatus), and recent months
have been relatively calm. With that, it was always believed that this
calm was tentative and that combustible factors on the ground could
still reignite a conflagration, such as local elections in the PA, the
speech PA President Mahmoud Abbas intends to deliver at the U.N. General
Assembly, and of course the large number of worshippers expected to
visit the Temple Mount over the holidays.
Against this backdrop,
the decision was made to deploy two additional IDF battalions to Judea
and Samaria over the upcoming holidays. The string of terrorist attacks
over the weekend, however, expedited the planned reinforcement, and one
of these battalions was already dispatched on Saturday in an effort to
help ease the tense situation. Due to assessments that the recent wave
of terror has consisted of "inspired" attacks -- in other words each
terrorist learned of his predecessor's actions and sought to emulate
them -- the goal is now to break the chain. As such, the IDF is
amplifying pressure in the Hebron sector, primarily around the village
of Bani Naim, the home of the terrorists who perpetrated the car-ramming
attack at Elias Junction on Friday.
We must hope these
steps can calm matters, but there is room for skepticism. Throughout the
ebb and flow of this terror wave, the fundamental facts have not
changed, particularly in relation to the poor economic situation in the
West Bank, diplomatic stagnation and ongoing incitement on the
Palestinian street. Along with these factors, the ever-combustible
holiday season already brings considerable potential for an escalation
-- in which Israeli and PA officials do not have an interest.
In the north,
meanwhile, chances of an escalation are far smaller, if any. While
Israel is concerned over the ongoing errant fire from Syria and is
sending the message that it will not be tolerated, the concern stems
more from the possibility of random Israeli civilian casualties and less
from the possibility of becoming entangled in an unplanned tailspin. No
one on the Israeli side doubts that despite the Syrian army's
involvement in the shooting, it has occurred within the framework of its
efforts to regain territory seized by the rebels, not to establish a
new balance of deterrence with Israel.
While the firing of anti-aircraft
missiles at Israeli jets last week was meant as a signal to Israel, it
was done carefully and measuredly so as to avoid sparking an escalation.
At this time, Syria recognizes Israel's military superiority and is
taking pains not to provoke it. This balance will shift only if
President Bashar Assad's forces succeed in regaining effective control
over most of Syria. Until that happens (and it might not), the regime
will continue flinging wild accusations at Israel, as it did Saturday
after an attack that killed dozens of Syrian soldiers in the country's
east. In this particular case, Israel was able to easily disprove the
false claims, but it must remain cautious into the future to avoid any
unwanted involvement in that country's bloody war.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17209
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